{
 "threshold": 0.0171,
 "rule_threshold": "06_kalibrasyon aksiyon_esikleri_tutulan: fit-year quantile row with fit_gun_payi = 0.02 (top 2 % of fit days), applied to P(1 g)",
 "rule_observed": "state-day flood = official/public report of inundation in the state on the MYT day (JKM InfoBencana 'Banjir' PPS open, JPBN/APM statement via Bernama/major press with URL, or a GDACS FL event covering the day with its point in the state); rain and GloFAS Q/Q2 are supporting evidence only",
 "merge": {
  "added": 48,
  "updated": 0,
  "unchanged": 0,
  "refused_downgrade": 0
 },
 "operational": {
  "statuses": [
   "verified",
   "provisional"
  ],
  "n_state_days": 96,
  "n_issues": 6,
  "n_floods": 25,
  "n_verified": 96,
  "n_provisional": 0,
  "n_pending": 48,
  "n_unknown": 48,
  "brier_day1": 0.25532,
  "brier_ref_sample_clim": 0.1926,
  "brier_ref_fit_clim": 0.25986,
  "bss_vs_fit_clim": 0.018,
  "mean_p_day1": 0.0041,
  "obs_freq": 0.2604,
  "reliability": [
   {
    "bin": "[0.000,0.005)",
    "n": 74,
    "mean_p": 0.0002,
    "floods": 12,
    "obs_freq": 0.1622,
    "obs_lo": 0.0953,
    "obs_hi": 0.2624
   },
   {
    "bin": "[0.005,0.010)",
    "n": 4,
    "mean_p": 0.0067,
    "floods": 2,
    "obs_freq": 0.5,
    "obs_lo": 0.15,
    "obs_hi": 0.85
   },
   {
    "bin": "[0.010,0.020)",
    "n": 13,
    "mean_p": 0.0153,
    "floods": 8,
    "obs_freq": 0.6154,
    "obs_lo": 0.3552,
    "obs_hi": 0.8229
   },
   {
    "bin": "[0.020,0.050)",
    "n": 5,
    "mean_p": 0.0308,
    "floods": 3,
    "obs_freq": 0.6,
    "obs_lo": 0.2307,
    "obs_hi": 0.8824
   },
   {
    "bin": "[0.050,0.100)",
    "n": 0,
    "mean_p": null,
    "obs_freq": null,
    "obs_lo": null,
    "obs_hi": null
   },
   {
    "bin": "[0.100,1.000)",
    "n": 0,
    "mean_p": null,
    "obs_freq": null,
    "obs_lo": null,
    "obs_hi": null
   }
  ],
  "contingency_day1": {
   "threshold": 0.0171,
   "n": 96,
   "hits": 4,
   "misses": 21,
   "false_alarms": 2,
   "correct_negatives": 69,
   "POD": 0.16,
   "POD_95": [
    0.064,
    0.3465
   ],
   "FAR": 0.3333,
   "FAR_95": [
    0.0968,
    0.7
   ],
   "CSI": 0.1481
  },
  "window_1_3": {
   "n": 64,
   "brier": 0.42112,
   "n_open": 48
  },
  "caveat": "tiny sample: one issue x 16 states is far too small for skill statistics; state-days of one storm are not independent; Brier/POD/FAR here are bookkeeping, not evidence of skill. Real-time scores are kept apart from the 2020-2026 hindcast."
 },
 "operational_strict_verified_only": {
  "statuses": [
   "verified"
  ],
  "n_state_days": 96,
  "n_issues": 6,
  "n_floods": 25,
  "n_verified": 96,
  "n_provisional": 0,
  "n_pending": 48,
  "n_unknown": 48,
  "brier_day1": 0.25532,
  "brier_ref_sample_clim": 0.1926,
  "brier_ref_fit_clim": 0.25986,
  "bss_vs_fit_clim": 0.018,
  "mean_p_day1": 0.0041,
  "obs_freq": 0.2604,
  "reliability": [
   {
    "bin": "[0.000,0.005)",
    "n": 74,
    "mean_p": 0.0002,
    "floods": 12,
    "obs_freq": 0.1622,
    "obs_lo": 0.0953,
    "obs_hi": 0.2624
   },
   {
    "bin": "[0.005,0.010)",
    "n": 4,
    "mean_p": 0.0067,
    "floods": 2,
    "obs_freq": 0.5,
    "obs_lo": 0.15,
    "obs_hi": 0.85
   },
   {
    "bin": "[0.010,0.020)",
    "n": 13,
    "mean_p": 0.0153,
    "floods": 8,
    "obs_freq": 0.6154,
    "obs_lo": 0.3552,
    "obs_hi": 0.8229
   },
   {
    "bin": "[0.020,0.050)",
    "n": 5,
    "mean_p": 0.0308,
    "floods": 3,
    "obs_freq": 0.6,
    "obs_lo": 0.2307,
    "obs_hi": 0.8824
   },
   {
    "bin": "[0.050,0.100)",
    "n": 0,
    "mean_p": null,
    "obs_freq": null,
    "obs_lo": null,
    "obs_hi": null
   },
   {
    "bin": "[0.100,1.000)",
    "n": 0,
    "mean_p": null,
    "obs_freq": null,
    "obs_lo": null,
    "obs_hi": null
   }
  ],
  "contingency_day1": {
   "threshold": 0.0171,
   "n": 96,
   "hits": 4,
   "misses": 21,
   "false_alarms": 2,
   "correct_negatives": 69,
   "POD": 0.16,
   "POD_95": [
    0.064,
    0.3465
   ],
   "FAR": 0.3333,
   "FAR_95": [
    0.0968,
    0.7
   ],
   "CSI": 0.1481
  },
  "window_1_3": {
   "n": 64,
   "brier": 0.42112,
   "n_open": 48
  },
  "caveat": "tiny sample: one issue x 16 states is far too small for skill statistics; state-days of one storm are not independent; Brier/POD/FAR here are bookkeeping, not evidence of skill. Real-time scores are kept apart from the 2020-2026 hindcast."
 },
 "persistence_reference": null,
 "hindcast_2020_2026_separate": {
  "brier_heldout": 0.01933,
  "bss_heldout_fit_clim": 0.02523,
  "base_rate_heldout": 0.01987,
  "catalogue_density_ratio": 10.32
 }
}