{
 "section": "10_dogrulama",
 "title": "10 · Dunku tahminin dogrulanmasi",
 "status": "tamam",
 "reason": "",
 "started": "2026-11-02T06:25:44+03:00",
 "finished": "2026-11-02T06:31:59+03:00",
 "duration_s": 374.3,
 "numbers": {
  "issue_day": "2026-11-01",
  "verified_day": "2026-11-02",
  "checked_at_myt": "2026-11-02T11:31+08:00",
  "threshold": 0.0171,
  "n_state_days_scored": 96,
  "n_verified": 96,
  "n_provisional": 0,
  "n_pending": 48,
  "n_unknown": 48,
  "floods_observed": 25,
  "brier_day1": 0.25532,
  "brier_ref_fit_clim": 0.25986,
  "bss_vs_fit_clim": 0.018,
  "hits": 4,
  "misses": 21,
  "false_alarms": 2,
  "correct_negatives": 69,
  "persistence": null,
  "window_1_3": {
   "n": 64,
   "brier": 0.42112,
   "n_open": 48
  },
  "merge": {
   "added": 48,
   "updated": 0,
   "unchanged": 0,
   "refused_downgrade": 0
  },
  "observed_states": []
 },
 "notes": [
  "tiny sample: one issue x 16 states is far too small for skill statistics; state-days of one storm are not independent; Brier/POD/FAR here are bookkeeping, not evidence of skill. Real-time scores are kept apart from the 2020-2026 hindcast.",
  "gun 2-3 (2026-10-31, 2026-11-01) 'pending': pencere 2026-11-01 MYT gunu bitince kapanir; sel-yok sayilmaz.",
  "tiny sample: one issue x 16 states is far too small for skill statistics; state-days of one storm are not independent; Brier/POD/FAR here are bookkeeping, not evidence of skill. Real-time scores are kept apart from the 2020-2026 hindcast.",
  "gun 2-3 (2026-11-01, 2026-11-02) 'pending': pencere 2026-11-02 MYT gunu bitince kapanir; sel-yok sayilmaz.",
  "tiny sample: one issue x 16 states is far too small for skill statistics; state-days of one storm are not independent; Brier/POD/FAR here are bookkeeping, not evidence of skill. Real-time scores are kept apart from the 2020-2026 hindcast.",
  "gun 2-3 (2026-11-02, 2026-11-03) 'pending': pencere 2026-11-03 MYT gunu bitince kapanir; sel-yok sayilmaz.",
  "tiny sample: one issue x 16 states is far too small for skill statistics; state-days of one storm are not independent; Brier/POD/FAR here are bookkeeping, not evidence of skill. Real-time scores are kept apart from the 2020-2026 hindcast.",
  "gun 2-3 (2026-11-03, 2026-11-04) 'pending': pencere 2026-11-04 MYT gunu bitince kapanir; sel-yok sayilmaz."
 ]
}