Verification
Operational verification (forecast issued in real time → next-day observation) is kept separate from the 2020–2026 hindcast scores. A few days of samples are not evidence of skill: state-days of one storm are not independent.
Malaysia — day-1 verification history
| ISSUE | VALID | N | VERIFIED | PENDING | FLOODS | HITS | MISSES | FALSE_ALARMS | BRIER | THRESHOLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 2026-11-05 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.125 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-04 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.125 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-03 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0625 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-11-01 | 2026-11-02 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.125 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-31 | 2026-11-01 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.1229 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-30 | 2026-10-31 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.2449 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.2478 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.3676 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.3061 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-27 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.2425 | 0.0171 |
Observed flood state-days
| ISSUE | VALID | STATE | P_DAY1 | ALARM | OBSERVED | STATUS | EVIDENCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-27 | Kedah | 0.04 | 1 | 1 | verified | Portal Berita RTM (2026-10-27 11:24 MYT): Yan: 202 victims, 3 PPS open (8:00 MYT) | The Star (2026-10-27 12:17 MYT): Yan: 202 evacuees, 3 relief centres | The Sun Malaysia (Bernama) (2026-10-27 14:07 MYT): 202 evacuees, Y |
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-27 | Pahang | 0.002 | 0 | 1 | verified | Harian Metro (Sekretariat JPBD Raub) (2026-10-27 (site: 'Oktober 27, 2026 @ 10:41am'; text: 'petang tadi')): Raub: banjir kilat Kg Melayu Sempalit + Jalan Tras (Sg Sempalit melimpah), no PPS, 18:50 MYT surut | New Strai |
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-27 | Perlis | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | The Sun Malaysia (Bernama) (2026-10-27 14:07 MYT): 16 flash-flood victims at Dewan Batu 5, stagnant floodwater (APM Perlis) | Media Selangor (Bernama) (2026-10-27 04:03 (site time)): 16 victims, transit centre | Media Ba |
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-27 | Selangor | 0.002 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (updated 2026-10-27T15:29:00+08:00): Banjir PPS 1 open, Kuala Langat, victims 20, opened 2026-10-26 |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | Kedah | 0.035 | 1 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (banjir) snapshot via search index (Dikemaskini pada 28 Oct 2026, 09:19 PM (MYT)): JKM 21:19 MYT: Yan 3 PPS 128 victims + Pendang 1 PPS 28 victims | Bernama (JPBN Kedah, APM Perlis) (2026-10-28 10:59 MYT): |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | Kuala Lumpur | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | Kosmo Online (2026-10-28 19:13 MYT): TTDI: jalan dinaiki air (banjir kilat, surut cepat; sumber media sosial via Kosmo/NST) | New Straits Times (2026-10-28 (site: 'October 28, 2026 @ 8:41am' [UTC stamp]; text: 'this even |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | Perlis | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | Bernama (JPBN Kedah, APM Perlis) (2026-10-28 10:59 MYT): 16 victims di pusat transit Dewan Batu 5; banjir termenung Kg Telok berterusan | Portal Berita RTM (2026-10-28 10:10 MYT): 16 victims transit, banjir termenung |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | Sabah | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | Malay Mail (Daily Express) (2026-10-28 10:50 MYT): Beaufort/Tenom: Sg Padas melebihi paras bahaya, kampung + 2 sekolah dinaiki air; Membakut banjir (tiada angka PPS) |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | Selangor | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (banjir) snapshot via search index (Dikemaskini pada 28 Oct 2026, 09:19 PM (MYT)): JKM 21:19 MYT: Kuala Langat 1 PPS 20 victims | The Star (Metro) (2026-10-28 19:20 MYT): banjir kilat Puchong Utama, Cyberj |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Kedah | 0.024 | 1 | 1 | verified | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-29 20:20 MYT): PPS Bukit Raya Pendang aktif (152 victims pagi, 25 petang) | Newswav (Media Selangor/Bernama; data InfoBencana JKM) (2026-10-30 10:47 MYT): PPS Pendang aktif |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Negeri Sembilan | 0.001 | 0 | 1 | verified | New Straits Times (site stamp 'October 29, 2026 @ 9:10pm' (UTC-style stamp; text: centre opened 10.25pm 'last night', 4am 'today')): Kuala Pilah/Johol: air banjir naik, PPS SK Undang Johol dibuka 22:25 MYT (38 victims) | |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Perak | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-29 20:20 MYT): Kerian/Titi Serong: rumah dinaiki air, PPS SK Titi Serong dibuka 17:00 MYT | Media Selangor (Bernama) (2026-10-29 14:03 MYT (updated text incl. 6pm figures)): Titi Serong, Keria |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Perlis | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-29 20:20 MYT): transit Dewan Batu 5 Kangar masih 9-13 victims banjir Kg Telok (bukan PPS rasmi) |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Pulau Pinang | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-29 20:20 MYT): banjir kilat Taman Kota Permai/Bukit Mertajam/Bandar Cassia; warga emas diselamatkan | Media Selangor (Bernama) (2026-10-29 14:03 MYT (updated text incl. 6pm figures)): banjir k |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Selangor | 0.001 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (national table, daily feed live fetch 29 Oct) (2026-10-29 11:17 MYT (table update time)): JKM InfoBencana 29 Oct 11:17 MYT: Kuala Langat PPS 1 open, 20 victims (opened 2026-10-26) |
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | Kedah | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | verified | Bernama (2026-10-30 13:21 MYT): PPS Bukit Raya: 25 victims pukul 8 pagi |
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | Negeri Sembilan | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch) (snapshot 2026-10-31 10:14 MYT): PPS SK Undang Johol + DOR Dangi aktif sepanjang 30/10 (71-87 victims) | Bernama (2026-10-30 13:21 MYT): Kuala Pilah: 2 PPS dibuka awal pagi 30/10, 71 victims |
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | Perak | 0.008 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch) (snapshot 2026-10-31 10:14 MYT): PPS SK Titi Serong Kerian aktif 30/10 (23-35 victims) | Bernama (2026-10-30 13:21 MYT): Titi Serong: 23 victims di PPS |
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | Sabah | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch) (snapshot 2026-10-31 10:14 MYT): JKM: PPS Banjir Sook dibuka 30/10/2026 (0 victims pada 31/10 10:14) — bukti lemah, tiada laporan berita ditemui | JKM InfoBencana (updated 2026-11-01T15:10:00 |
| 2026-10-30 | 2026-10-31 | Kedah | 0.019 | 1 | 1 | verified | Malay Mail (Bernama) (2026-10-31 18:35 MYT): PPS Bukit Raya Pendang masih menempatkan 9 victims banjir sehingga ditutup 10 pagi 31/10 | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-31 18:30 MYT): PPS Pendang ditutup 10 pagi 31/10 (9 mangs |
| 2026-10-30 | 2026-10-31 | Negeri Sembilan | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | Malay Mail (Bernama) (2026-10-31 18:35 MYT): 2 PPS Kuala Pilah (87 victims) aktif sehingga ditutup 4 petang 31/10 | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-31 18:30 MYT): 2 PPS Kuala Pilah ditutup 4 petang 31/10 | Harian Metro (Berna |
| 2026-10-30 | 2026-10-31 | Perak | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch, banjir view b=1) (snapshot 2026-10-31 21:30 MYT): PPS SK Titi Serong Kerian aktif sepanjang 31/10 (34 pagi -> 25 petang -> 20 pada 21:30 MYT) | Malay Mail (Bernama) (2026-10-31 18:35 MYT): |
| 2026-10-30 | 2026-10-31 | Sabah | 0.005 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch, banjir view b=1) (snapshot 2026-10-31 21:30 MYT): JKM: PPS Banjir Sook masih dibuka 31/10 (0 victims) — bukti lemah, tiada laporan berita ditemui | GDACS FL 1104239 (Green, 2026-10-15..2026- |
| 2026-10-31 | 2026-11-01 | Perak | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | Malay Mail (Bernama) (2026-11-01 08:56 MYT): PPS SK Titi Serong Kerian: 18 victims banjir pada 8 pagi 1/11 |
| 2026-10-31 | 2026-11-01 | Sabah | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch, banjir view b=1) (snapshot 2026-11-01 15:10 MYT): JKM: 2 PPS banjir Sipitang aktif 1/11 (137 victims, 41 keluarga) | The Star (2026-11-01 13:36 MYT): Bomba Sipitang: 24 victims Kg Bebangkong |
| 2026-11-01 | 2026-11-02 | Sabah | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (snapshot recorded in reports_2026-11-02.json) (snapshot 2026-11-02 00:20 MYT): JKM: 2 PPS banjir Sipitang aktif 2/11 00:20 MYT (137 victims) — sambungan |
| 2026-11-01 | 2026-11-02 | Selangor | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch, banjir view b=1) (snapshot 2026-11-03 11:08 MYT): JKM: PPS Shah Alam (dibuka 2/11 6 ptg) masih aktif 3/11, 33 victims | Bernama via TVS (TV Sarawak) (2026-11-02 21:26 MYT): Banjir kilat Kg M |
| 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-03 | Selangor | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | The Star (2026-11-03 16:55 MYT): 30 victims masih di PPS Dewan Siantan 1 ptg 3/11 (sambungan) | Sinar Harian (2026-11-03 12:36 MYT): JKM Selangor: 30 individu di PPS Dewan Siantan 3/11 (sambungan) | Kosmo (PDRM Sungai Bul |
| 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-04 | Kelantan | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch, view b=0) (snapshot 2026-11-05 11:04 MYT): PPS Gua Musang dibuka 04/11 (JKM) | Berita Harian / Astro Awani / Kosmo (Gua Musang) (2026-11-04 MYT): Banjir Gua Musang, 1 PPS (BH/Awani/Kosmo) | |
| 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-04 | Selangor | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch, view b=0) (snapshot 2026-11-05 11:04 MYT): PPS banjir Shah Alam/Sungai Buloh masih aktif sepanjang 4/11 (JKM) | The Star (2026-11-04 MYT): 306 victims di 3 PPS Sungai Buloh (The Star) | JKM |
| 2026-11-04 | 2026-11-05 | Kelantan | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (updated 2026-11-05T11:01:00+08:00): Banjir PPS 1 open, Gua Musang, victims 22, opened 2026-11-04 |
| 2026-11-04 | 2026-11-05 | Selangor | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (updated 2026-11-05T11:01:00+08:00): Banjir PPS 1 open, Kuala Selangor, victims 642, opened 2026-11-02 | JKM InfoBencana (updated 2026-11-05T11:01:00+08:00): Banjir PPS 4 open, Shah Alam, victims 441, opened |
