DoğrulamaVerification
Operasyonel doğrulama (gerçek zamanlı yayımlanmış tahmin → ertesi gün gözlem) 2020–2026 hindcast skorlarından ayrı tutulur. Birkaç günlük örnek beceri kanıtı değildir: aynı fırtınanın eyalet-günleri bağımsız değildir.Operational verification (forecast issued in real time → next-day observation) is kept separate from the 2020–2026 hindcast scores. A few days of samples are not evidence of skill: state-days of one storm are not independent.
Malezya — gün-1 doğrulama geçmişiMalaysia — day-1 verification history
| issue | valid | n | verified | pending | floods | hits | misses | false_alarms | brier | threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 2026-11-02 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0171 | |
| 2026-10-31 | 2026-11-01 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.1229 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-30 | 2026-10-31 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.2449 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.2478 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.3676 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.3061 | 0.0171 |
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-27 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.2425 | 0.0171 |
Gözlenen sel eyalet-günleriObserved flood state-days
| issue | valid | state | p_day1 | alarm | observed | status | evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-27 | Kedah | 0.04 | 1 | 1 | verified | Portal Berita RTM (2026-10-27 11:24 MYT): Yan: 202 mangsa, 3 PPS acik (8:00 MYT) | The Star (2026-10-27 12:17 MYT): Yan: 202 evacuees, 3 relief centres | The Sun Malaysia (Bernama) (2026-10-27 14:07 MYT): 202 evacuees, Y |
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-27 | Pahang | 0.002 | 0 | 1 | verified | Harian Metro (Sekretariat JPBD Raub) (2026-10-27 (site: 'Oktober 27, 2026 @ 10:41am'; text: 'petang tadi')): Raub: banjir kilat Kg Melayu Sempalit + Jalan Tras (Sg Sempalit melimpah), PPS yok, 18:50 MYT surut | New Strai |
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-27 | Perlis | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | The Sun Malaysia (Bernama) (2026-10-27 14:07 MYT): 16 flash-flood victims at Dewan Batu 5, stagnant floodwater (APM Perlis) | Media Selangor (Bernama) (2026-10-27 04:03 (site time)): 16 victims, transit centre | Media Ba |
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-27 | Selangor | 0.002 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (guncel 2026-10-27T15:29:00+08:00): Banjir PPS 1 acik, Kuala Langat, mangsa 20, acilis 2026-10-26 |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | Kedah | 0.035 | 1 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (banjir) snapshot via search index (Dikemaskini pada 28 Oct 2026, 09:19 PM (MYT)): JKM 21:19 MYT: Yan 3 PPS 128 mangsa + Pendang 1 PPS 28 mangsa | Bernama (JPBN Kedah, APM Perlis) (2026-10-28 10:59 MYT): |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | Kuala Lumpur | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | Kosmo Online (2026-10-28 19:13 MYT): TTDI: jalan dinaiki air (banjir kilat, surut cepat; sumber media sosial via Kosmo/NST) | New Straits Times (2026-10-28 (site: 'October 28, 2026 @ 8:41am' [UTC stamp]; text: 'this even |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | Perlis | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | Bernama (JPBN Kedah, APM Perlis) (2026-10-28 10:59 MYT): 16 mangsa di pusat transit Dewan Batu 5; banjir termenung Kg Telok berterusan | Portal Berita RTM (2026-10-28 10:10 MYT): 16 mangsa transit, banjir termenung |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | Sabah | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | Malay Mail (Daily Express) (2026-10-28 10:50 MYT): Beaufort/Tenom: Sg Padas melebihi paras bahaya, kampung + 2 sekolah dinaiki air; Membakut banjir (tiada angka PPS) |
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-28 | Selangor | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (banjir) snapshot via search index (Dikemaskini pada 28 Oct 2026, 09:19 PM (MYT)): JKM 21:19 MYT: Kuala Langat 1 PPS 20 mangsa | The Star (Metro) (2026-10-28 19:20 MYT): banjir kilat Puchong Utama, Cyberj |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Kedah | 0.024 | 1 | 1 | verified | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-29 20:20 MYT): PPS Bukit Raya Pendang aktif (152 mangsa pagi, 25 petang) | Newswav (Media Selangor/Bernama; data InfoBencana JKM) (2026-10-30 10:47 MYT): PPS Pendang aktif |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Negeri Sembilan | 0.001 | 0 | 1 | verified | New Straits Times (site stamp 'October 29, 2026 @ 9:10pm' (UTC-style stamp; text: centre opened 10.25pm 'last night', 4am 'today')): Kuala Pilah/Johol: air banjir naik, PPS SK Undang Johol dibuka 22:25 MYT (38 mangsa) | |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Perak | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-29 20:20 MYT): Kerian/Titi Serong: rumah dinaiki air, PPS SK Titi Serong dibuka 17:00 MYT | Media Selangor (Bernama) (2026-10-29 14:03 MYT (updated text incl. 6pm figures)): Titi Serong, Keria |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Perlis | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-29 20:20 MYT): transit Dewan Batu 5 Kangar masih 9-13 mangsa banjir Kg Telok (bukan PPS rasmi) |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Pulau Pinang | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-29 20:20 MYT): banjir kilat Taman Kota Permai/Bukit Mertajam/Bandar Cassia; warga emas diselamatkan | Media Selangor (Bernama) (2026-10-29 14:03 MYT (updated text incl. 6pm figures)): banjir k |
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | Selangor | 0.001 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (ulusal tablo, gunluk hattin 29 Eki canli cekimi) (2026-10-29 11:17 MYT (tablo guncelleme zamani)): JKM InfoBencana 29 Eki 11:17 MYT: Kuala Langat PPS 1 acik, 20 mangsa (acilis 2026-10-26) |
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | Kedah | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | verified | Bernama (2026-10-30 13:21 MYT): PPS Bukit Raya: 25 mangsa pukul 8 pagi |
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | Negeri Sembilan | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch) (snapshot 2026-10-31 10:14 MYT): PPS SK Undang Johol + DOR Dangi aktif sepanjang 30/10 (71-87 mangsa) | Bernama (2026-10-30 13:21 MYT): Kuala Pilah: 2 PPS dibuka awal pagi 30/10, 71 mangsa |
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | Perak | 0.008 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch) (snapshot 2026-10-31 10:14 MYT): PPS SK Titi Serong Kerian aktif 30/10 (23-35 mangsa) | Bernama (2026-10-30 13:21 MYT): Titi Serong: 23 mangsa di PPS |
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | Sabah | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch) (snapshot 2026-10-31 10:14 MYT): JKM: PPS Banjir Sook dibuka 30/10/2026 (0 mangsa pada 31/10 10:14) — bukti lemah, tiada laporan berita ditemui | JKM InfoBencana (guncel 2026-11-01T15:10:00 |
| 2026-10-30 | 2026-10-31 | Kedah | 0.019 | 1 | 1 | verified | Malay Mail (Bernama) (2026-10-31 18:35 MYT): PPS Bukit Raya Pendang masih menempatkan 9 mangsa banjir sehingga ditutup 10 pagi 31/10 | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-31 18:30 MYT): PPS Pendang ditutup 10 pagi 31/10 (9 mangs |
| 2026-10-30 | 2026-10-31 | Negeri Sembilan | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | Malay Mail (Bernama) (2026-10-31 18:35 MYT): 2 PPS Kuala Pilah (87 mangsa) aktif sehingga ditutup 4 petang 31/10 | The Star (Bernama) (2026-10-31 18:30 MYT): 2 PPS Kuala Pilah ditutup 4 petang 31/10 | Harian Metro (Berna |
| 2026-10-30 | 2026-10-31 | Perak | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch, banjir view b=1) (snapshot 2026-10-31 21:30 MYT): PPS SK Titi Serong Kerian aktif sepanjang 31/10 (34 pagi -> 25 petang -> 20 pada 21:30 MYT) | Malay Mail (Bernama) (2026-10-31 18:35 MYT): |
| 2026-10-30 | 2026-10-31 | Sabah | 0.005 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch, banjir view b=1) (snapshot 2026-10-31 21:30 MYT): JKM: PPS Banjir Sook masih dibuka 31/10 (0 mangsa) — bukti lemah, tiada laporan berita ditemui | JKM InfoBencana (guncel 2026-11-01T15:10:0 |
| 2026-10-31 | 2026-11-01 | Perak | 0.017 | 0 | 1 | verified | Malay Mail (Bernama) (2026-11-01 08:56 MYT): PPS SK Titi Serong Kerian: 18 mangsa banjir pada 8 pagi 1/11 |
| 2026-10-31 | 2026-11-01 | Sabah | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | verified | JKM InfoBencana (direct fetch, banjir view b=1) (snapshot 2026-11-01 15:10 MYT): JKM: 2 PPS banjir Sipitang aktif 1/11 (137 mangsa, 41 keluarga) | The Star (2026-11-01 13:36 MYT): Bomba Sipitang: 24 mangsa Kg Bebangkong |
Türkiye — tahmin katmanı doğrulama günlüğüTürkiye — forecast layer verification log
Gözlem toplanana kadar kayıtlar 'pending' kalır; bekleyen gün sel-yok sayılmaz.Records stay 'pending' until observations are collected; a pending day is never counted as no-flood.
| layer | issue | lead | n | alarms | verified | pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| comb | 2026-11-02 | 3 | 81 | 26 | 0 | 81 |
| comb | 2026-11-02 | 2 | 81 | 27 | 0 | 81 |
| comb | 2026-11-02 | 1 | 81 | 24 | 0 | 81 |
| comb | 2026-11-01 | 3 | 81 | 27 | 0 | 81 |
| comb | 2026-11-01 | 2 | 81 | 24 | 0 | 81 |
| comb | 2026-11-01 | 1 | 81 | 24 | 0 | 81 |
| comb | 2026-10-31 | 3 | 81 | 26 | 0 | 81 |
| comb | 2026-10-31 | 2 | 81 | 26 | 0 | 81 |
| comb | 2026-10-31 | 1 | 81 | 24 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-30 | 3 | 81 | 25 | 0 | 81 |
| comb | 2026-10-30 | 2 | 81 | 24 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-30 | 1 | 81 | 24 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-29 | 3 | 81 | 25 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-29 | 2 | 81 | 25 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-29 | 1 | 81 | 26 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-28 | 3 | 81 | 23 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-28 | 2 | 81 | 24 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-28 | 1 | 81 | 25 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-27 | 3 | 81 | 24 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-27 | 2 | 81 | 25 | 81 | 0 |
| comb | 2026-10-27 | 1 | 81 | 24 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-11-02 | 3 | 81 | 4 | 0 | 81 |
| rain | 2026-11-02 | 2 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 81 |
| rain | 2026-11-02 | 1 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 81 |
| rain | 2026-11-01 | 3 | 81 | 2 | 0 | 81 |
| rain | 2026-11-01 | 2 | 81 | 2 | 0 | 81 |
| rain | 2026-11-01 | 1 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 81 |
| rain | 2026-10-31 | 3 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 81 |
| rain | 2026-10-31 | 2 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 81 |
| rain | 2026-10-31 | 1 | 81 | 0 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-30 | 3 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 81 |
| rain | 2026-10-30 | 2 | 81 | 1 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-30 | 1 | 81 | 0 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-29 | 3 | 81 | 2 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-29 | 2 | 81 | 0 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-29 | 1 | 81 | 0 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-28 | 3 | 81 | 0 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-28 | 2 | 81 | 1 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-28 | 1 | 81 | 1 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-27 | 3 | 81 | 1 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-27 | 2 | 81 | 2 | 81 | 0 |
| rain | 2026-10-27 | 1 | 81 | 2 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-11-02 | 3 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 81 |
| river | 2026-11-02 | 2 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 81 |
| river | 2026-11-02 | 1 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 81 |
| river | 2026-11-01 | 3 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 81 |
| river | 2026-11-01 | 2 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 81 |
| river | 2026-11-01 | 1 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 81 |
| river | 2026-10-31 | 3 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 81 |
| river | 2026-10-31 | 2 | 81 | 7 | 0 | 81 |
| river | 2026-10-31 | 1 | 81 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-30 | 3 | 81 | 8 | 0 | 81 |
| river | 2026-10-30 | 2 | 81 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-30 | 1 | 81 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-29 | 3 | 81 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-29 | 2 | 81 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-29 | 1 | 81 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-28 | 3 | 81 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-28 | 2 | 81 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-28 | 1 | 81 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-27 | 3 | 81 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-27 | 2 | 81 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| river | 2026-10-27 | 1 | 81 | 6 | 81 | 0 |